Monday, August 27, 2012

Two Ruts



          The season of conventions is upon us once more. What costume will you be wearing to the party? I shan't be watching them. For me, politics is a waste of time. There are no solutions found in either Party. It's a bit like having to choose between Spam Classic or Spam with Bacon (both real products). Spam with Bacon sounds better. I remain skeptical.

Two Ruts

          American politics is more entrenched than at any time since the Civil War. Essentially, the voters are offered two ruts. The voters don't wish to travel down either one. Two thirds of Americans believe that Obama's policies are the wrong direction. Three fourths of Americans believe that Romney's policies are the wrong direction. In what fantasy Pleasantville are there only two roads? How many roads are in your town? The American people need more roads. With two misguided alternatives, we guarantee the reality of the phrase “you can't get there from here”. At least add another rut.

In This Corner....

          In my opinion, Obama remains asleep at the switch, perpetuating business as usual. Since it is the nature of bureaucracy to make more bureaucracy, our regulatory condition is the messiest in our history. Rather than the product of some Master Plan, agencies create policies like kids running wild, dressing and feeding themselves. Without concerted direction, policy burdens on business and the People increase unchecked. Is this any way to run an airline?

          So Obama and the Mittmeister are running pretty even currently. This election sees the smallest undecided Independent segment of any election. Experts estimate it at around 11 million people. So all the hoopla, billions of dollars wasted (I mean spent), mudslinging, the mind-numbing barrage of media commercials, and the daily telephone interruptions of your dinner are occurring all to get the affections of 11 million people. What’s wrong with this picture?

 
          While people say they want to vote for a candidate they would have a beer with, they won't. The voters also won't vote for a candidate who speaks to their best interests. People vote with their hearts, not with their heads. Obama is more likable than Romney (23 points higher), but it won't help him all that much. What will help Obama, however, is a recent shift in demographics. This shift may determine the election.

          In 2008, Obama received 80% of black and Hispanic votes. Since 2008, the white population of America has increased 1%. The minority population has increased 30%. The black and Hispanic population increased 3% last year alone. People tend to vote with the group they identify with.

          People also vote for someone they connect with and relate to. Romney is tasked in this regard. In the eight years that he has run for President, Romney has failed to connect with voters, to convey kindness, compassion, or even humanity. In many ways, Romney remains cold and distant, an .xl spreadsheet.

          However, this is really an anti-Obama election rather than a pro-Romney election. If Obama were running unopposed, he'd be in serious trouble. The reason the race is currently tied is that there is a Republican in the room. Romney brings his own baggage car of steamer trunks to the party. He only served one term in public office, during which he was pro-abortion, pro-gun control, pro-Green, and pro-state healthcare. So he’s not allowed to talk about his political credentials. He's also not allowed to talk about his faith, although he devotes 20 hours a week as a leader in the Mormon church. All you got is his business credentials. He created a very successful investment capital firm.

Investment Capital 101

          Some gentle readers may be fuzzy on what an investment capital firm is. At the heart of it, they are the lifeblood of capitalism, injecting liquidity (money) to help start and build businesses. Investment capital firms can focus on several directions. Some focus on making profits helping startup businesses. Others buy existing businesses, tear them apart, and sell them off to make a profit. Remember Pretty Woman?

          Investment capital firms, over the course of their life, will usually both build and pillage, and Romney's company was no exception. I'm told by industry insiders that Bain Capital pretty much acted like other investment capital firms, no better and no worse. Romney was very good at what he did, and made billions personally.

          Ok, so what is the common theme in the description mentioned above? In a word, profit. That is what investment capital produces, profit for shareholders. They are NOT in the business of ”creating jobs”. They are in the business of making profits. Mitt, according to insiders, has virtually no experience “creating jobs”. That’s not what his business did/ does.

          So Bain generated a lot of profit for people owning and working at Bain, and created jobs primarily for the people working at Bain. These statements are not partisan. They reflect the unvarnished reality concerning the nature of investment capital firms.

The Esteemed Opposition

          Since he’s forbidden to mention his faith or political record, Mitt is pretty much painted into a corner about what he can and can't talk about. Romney's choice of Ryan for VP was politically courageous. Ryan brings gravity, conservative conscience, and conviction to a candidacy that had few of these qualities.

          However, Ryan's choice is also politically very risky. The race may be the Republican’s to lose, but lose it they might. It depends if they actually speak words with their outside voice.

          Ryan does not attract women or ethnic voters. He is a House Republican. Ebola has a higher approval rating than House Republicans. Most of this race so far has centered on bashing the opposition and focusing on frivolous distractions. With the base pretty much locked in, as long as the candidates don't dive into substance, particularly controversial substance.....

          Ryan immediately dived into Medicare. This will come back to haunt the Republicans. Medicare is a bloated, unsustainable program. However, it is one of the most popular bloated, unsustainable programs. Bear in mind the phrase “Get your government hands off my Medicare” originated from the Tea Party, who want to get governments out of our everyday lives. A perceived attack on Medicare plays into Democrat hands and threatens the support of voters over age 65, the single demographic staunchly supporting McCain in the previous election. Threaten the family's income or health care at your own peril.

Now What?

          Okay, bottom line summary is that our political choices are profoundly flawed. Ultimately, our political system is not in the hands of politicians, or the Big Money sustaining business as usual politicians. Our political destiny remains in the wringing hands of the American People. That is the beauty and wisdom built into our political system.

          So if we only have two unpalatable roads, it is the fault of the American voter. If we want more roads, they are in the hands of the American voter. Solutions lie in structural reform, rather than voting for the fellow who quotes your favorite Bible verse or has a winning smile. Campaign finance reform, term limits, and curtailing the use of the filibuster would transform the landscape of American politics. We might actually be able to craft common solutions with comity, respect, thoughtfulness, and wisdom.

          Are such structural reforms likely to occur? Not by themselves. Are the foxes likely to reform henhouse policy, or the loonies likely to reform what goes on in the loony bin? Not unless they're forced to. The forced to part is in the hands of the American voter.

          Before henhouse and loony bin reforms can be made, we need more roads. How do we get more roads? One foundational structural reform would be to abolish the closed primary system. Anybody can run. Anybody can vote........ for anybody. Open primaries diffuse the impact and influence of Big Money and Party machines. They dilute business as usual. The political landscape would be much more expansive, unpredictable and volatile. For a nation founded in a Revolution, bound by the trust to safeguard its freedoms, expansive, unpredictable, and volatile are good things. This expanded landscape would amplify the voice of the People, and could spark new roads, new thinking, new alternatives, and higher order structural reforms.