Global Perspectives

          It may be interesting to note that the concept of global power is Western in origin. It began with the great explorations and then was expressed in competition, colonization and hegemony by various Western countries. There was a rise of “isms”,  such as Nazism and Stalinism, as nations fought for domination of Eurasia. No such “isms” will be able to rise within the foreseeable future as the global landscape shifts. Traditional concepts of global dominance are fast becoming obsolete. “Hard” power is being replaced by “soft” power. Recently, foreign policy in the West, in particular, in the United States has been framed as a projection of military, or hard power. It is our God appointed right to impose our will on others. I noted the booing of the Golden Rule during a recent debate.

           Upon a review of overt and covert hard power projection for the last half century, we subsequently conclude that employing military force produces unpredictable consequences and is very, very expensive. A single nation imposing it’s will on the world is now economically and politically unsustainable.

          Some US political candidates frame the world through a traditional lens. Persons framing the world in terms of global dominance and “isms” are out of touch with reality. The reality is that the West is an increasingly fragmented collection of debtor nations, while many Asian nations are solvent, aggressive, dynamic, and competitive. The strategic landscape is shifting from West to East, as well as from Northern to Southern hemispheres. This shift reflects trending of economic dynamism and vitality.

          To increase its dynamism, the West might economically incorporate Russia and Turkey. Both are dynamic and regionally influential nations who associate themselves more with the West than with the East.   

          I also note that some US politicians continue to see the United States in terms of being the global cop, perpetuating our post-WWII role. However, we live in a constantly changing world. However, our planet is interconnected in terms of knowledge, communication and economics. No single nation will be able to dominate a connected planet. Pursuing the traditional role of a global policeman will drive any single nation into bankruptcy, social resentment, and loss of legitimacy internationally.

          These massive strategic shifts are complicated by two factors: (1) a global political awakening of the person on the street, and (2) the deep and profound economic interdependence between nations. These two factors are unprecedented in human history. Keep these global forces in mind when framing international perspectives.

          In every nation, populations are taking to the streets, challenging the political status quo and demanding more dignity and self-determinism. Populations are restless and resentful and increasingly framing their discontent in an Anti-Western narrative.

          In addition, a single real time economic system connects the fate of all major nations with all others. Forces of both change and interconnectedness are making our world much more risky and unpredictable. When a fire in my house can burn the whole city, and everyone has matches, times get “interesting”. While we have national central banks and economic policies, we have a single global real time financial system and economy. Policy makers still can’t wrap their minds around the reality of this unprecedented interdependence.

          In a world in transition, there is still a key global role for the United States, one of leadership rather than cop on the block. Emerging realities require new thinking, new perspectives, and new relationships. There is currently no central organizing narrative to enable nations to jointly address global problems. The United States could be a determinant leader in crafting such a narrative, one based on partnership and global equilibrium. The 21st Century will be characterized by distributed and interconnected economies, communications, and relationships. For the most part, that world is yet to come. This is a world where energy and capitalism is as decentralized and distributed as Facebook and the Internet it reflects.  

          The United States can foster hope by providing moral and strategic clarity, helping make sense of an increasingly unpredictable landscape. When the situation is fluid, thinking must be fluid, and we should lead fluidly as well.

          However, a major challenge faced by the United States is also a core strength, our democratic form of government. Policy makers are accountable to the populace. Policy makers are only as capable as the populace they represent. Sadly, the American population is the most ignorant and introspective of any major industrialized nation. The United States could be a shining light, the crucial leader in shaping the emerging strategic global landscape. The United States could renew its greatness on the world stage, or it could stay mired in obsolete and ill-fitting models of previous centuries. The future is ours to create....or not.