Middle East- Current Affairs

          This blog touches on current events in the Middle East. I think foremost in many people's minds is the murder of Ambassador Stevens in Libya. Details of this event continue to emerge daily and a clear picture of the affair will emerge over time. In addition to Libya, I want to touch on Iran, Turkey, and where we stand in our ”war” with global terrorism.

 Libya

             For many people, images of Islamic riots and burning US Embassies brought to mind the revolutions and State-sponsored terrorism of the 1970s. Thousands across the Islamic world burned and pillaged in protest of an inflammatory anti-Islamic movie. In one sense, this part of the world is irrationally volatile. Islam is a religion of peace and if you say otherwise, we'll kill you.

            Unlike ourselves, our enemies recognize our “war” is not a fight for territory or body count, but rather for hearts and minds. It is a clash of beliefs and narratives. Consequently, our enemies continually scour the Internet and media for any fruits of our free speech which they can use to inflame the masses to turn hearts and minds against us. We in the West should consequently be aware of two realities: this part of the world is irrationally volatile and inflammatory things inflame. We’re continually astonished when protests and riots occur, but we should be astonished if they didn’t. If you poke a hornets nest with a stick, don't be surprised if you get stung. It may be wise not to pass around sticks rather than wishing that hornets don't sting.

             So our enemies provoke riots and utilize such riots to their own ends, as was seen in Libya. Initial announcements portrayed the storming of the US Embassy as a spontaneous action by protesters. Dude, you don't take rocket launchers to a protest. It is clear that our enemies used the anti-video rioting as cover and launched a planned attack. So is this Al Qaeda? No, but we'll get into that in a bit.

             The daily domestic wrangling concerning the killing of our Ambassador concerns who's to blame, who knew what when, and why wasn't there enough security? Have you visited many embassies, Sparky? Third world Embassies are always under-resourced and this is a really dangerous part of the world. The Benghazi Embassy was classified as “temporary” and resourced as such. Stevens was killed in a safe house guarded by Navy SEALs rather than at the Embassy. Don't be surprised if our enemies had guys on the inside. I would question the Butler.

             What is different about this incident and Islamic disruptions of the 1970s and 1980s is that governments across the Middle East are taking a public stand against such violence. Libya, Tunisia, Egypt, and Turkey all publicly denounced anti-American violence. This may not seem like much to the grieving West, but it is historically huge in the region.

             There are pros and cons to these fledgling democracies. They are authentic, though struggling, democracies who want to partner with us against extremist elements. The downside is that they are fragmented and weak compared with the autocratic States they replaced. They are much less agile and capable partners.

             So why did the Libyan people hate us? Didn’t we just help them out? They don't. Two thirds of the Libyan people support the United States and want better relations. However, the Benghazi region is particularly dangerous. This region has a long history of producing violent extremists. This region sent more fighters to Iraq than any other nation. So it's a pretty big hornets nest to camp next to.

 Iran

             The West and Israel continued to stay fixated on potential Iranian nuclear bomb-making hijinks. Since a majority of Israelis don't favor a first strike, it is likely their incendiary government will keep its saber sheathed.

             Western sanctions are ravaging the Iranian economy. The value of their currency continues to fall. The average Joe and Jane are fed up. Merchants are rioting in the streets of Tehran. The nations current political and economic course appears unsustainable. Expect major change to start with next year's elections.

 Syria

             The West still does nothing while the Syrian Civil War devolves into ethnic and sectarian violence. The Assad regime is sponsored by Iran and Russia. Iran hopes to increase his political influence in a Syrian power vacuum and promote another Shiite State.

                        Russia provides the Assad regime with weapons and military support, as well as running interference with the West. For Russia, Syria is the last of their Middle Eastern client States as well as their only Mediterranean port. Russian strategists worry about a  “Shiite underbelly “ forming and posing future threats. Putin probably views overthrow of a repressive regime as an existential threat to his own. He may well fear a “Russian Spring” around the corner.

             The loudest regional voice against the Assad regime is from Turkey. They're afraid that the raging fire in Syria will spread to consume their own house. They have recently snubbed the Russians, although they are afraid of them. Snubbing the Russians also jeopardizes the ten year growth arc the Turks have enjoyed. Cross-border military tensions may escalate, but Turkey would be isolated during a Syrian war and has little appetite for a full-blown conflict. The recent downing of a Russian passenger plane and seizure of its cargo was based on intelligence provided by NATO. Look for Turkey to play an increasing role as a surrogate for quiet Western intervention in the Syrian conflict.

 Terrorism

             So what is the status of our “war on terror”? The pros divide our enemies into three broad categories:

 (1) Al Qaeda prime-the original Al Qaeda, accept no imitations. They are hiding in Pakistan, pretty much cut to ribbons. The future chance they could cause major casualties in the United States, about zero.

 (2) Al Qaeda affiliates- the media often calls these Al Qaeda. They are not. These are extremist Islamist cells adopting the brand and franchise of Al Qaeda. They park themselves within various nation states and can be quite a nuisance. These are the guys who keep the ideological engines running, inspiring new generations of adherents. They plan minor operations against the West but don't seem particularly competence in their execution. They won't pose any threat to grandma in Terre Haute. But don't send your kid to the University of Sama’a.

 (3) Al Qaeda inspired- there are a lot of these troublemakers milling around, domestically and abroad. These are individuals and small groups inspired by a jihadist narrative. These are probably the new “normal” within the global fabric. They produce shooting sprees, suicide bombers, and bombs in backpacks. Although sowers of tragedy, they are hardly a threat to Western Civilization as we know it.

             So did Al Qaeda kill Stevens? Nope. Local extremists supported by regional affiliates did. Kind of between zone 2 and 3. That’s the current read on the inside.

             Our intelligence leadership assesses terrorism in terms of a “surface game” and a “deep game”. Our strategy for the surface game is to take out high-level bad guys and high visibility propagandists. We have done quite well in playing the surface game.

             For over a decade, the deep game has been a deep concern. This is the war for hearts and minds. This is what they call the “pipeline” that produces new enemies and new generations of enemies. For over a decade, our enemies produced as many or more followers than we killed. That’s one downside of parking US troops on Achmed’s doorstep.

             With the Arab Spring, a new regional narrative was introduced, crafted on the Arab streets. However flawed, fledgling democracies provide hope and vent frustrations that were long repressed. For the first time since 9/11, our strategic analysts are observing ground gained in the deep game.

             Extremist elements may be a fact of modern life, but they can in time wither as regional popular support for violent protest wanes. Just as the Arab Spring symbolizes new political direction, symbolic tragedies such as the murder of Ambassador Stevens or the shooting of Malala Yousafzai may serve to erode support for violent narratives within this volatile region.