A Look Back 2012

          Historians look for things called inflection points. Inflection points are moments in time when events occurred or could have occurred that significantly impact the future. Inflection points also reflect shifts in national conversation and consciousness. This blog speculates on what inflection points future historians will note for the year 2012.

      

Climate Change

          it is likely that the most crucial inflection point in 2012 involves climate change. Sandy shifted the national conversation about climate change from the theoretical to the experiential. A few weeks ago, a UN study of the latest climate data concluded that we have passed the tipping point, that point of no return where global temperatures will rise on their own, polar ice will melt, and sea levels will rise precipitously over the next 50 years. Let us pray to St. Gore for mercy.

          I have for some time been curious about what conditions specifically constitute a tipping point. This is the first report I have seen which provided this answer. The tipping point occurs when global temperatures (land and particularly sea) rise by 3.6°F. Global temperatures have risen more than 2° since St. Gore descended on his aerial lift to prophesy climate change doom.

          The causal link between temperature rise and human carbon emissions remains unclear. However, it may be wise to cut back on the emitting. Humanity pumped out 400% higher CO2 levels in 2011 than many climate change models predicted. The world will try again in a few years to craft a global treaty curbing carbon emissions. A few more Sandy's might get the US to that table.

          Political extremists are fixated on the onerous debt burden that will be borne by future generations. These folks believe that debt is bad but deny the reality of climate change. Let us pray that they are correct. If Gramps could have taken actions that position future generations at the low end of of the disaster prediction scale, and didn't take such action, or didn't believe in such action, future generations will be pissed off at far more than owing a few bucks to the Chinese.

Gun Regulation

          Mass shootings and public tragedies have in the past produced little social change or political traction for authentic gun regulation. Guns, like booze, are part of our national heritage and identity. However, recent tragedies are shifting the national conversation towards “common sense” gun regulation.

          Like many problems our nation faces, gun violence is very complex. With some interest, I have listened to recent proposals to curb gun violence. These proposals have made little practical sense to me.

          We need another ban on assault weapons. I note that assault weapons are merely cosmetically different from hunting rifles. Connecticut already has a ban on assault weapons. The recent shootings were not conducted with assault weapons. No assault weapons were needed for the assassination of the Kennedys and MLK.

          Put metal detectors in all schools. Schools already look like factories. Should they look more like airports? I note that the pistol used in Connecticut was plastic and designed to go through a metal detector. They catch guns at the airport using x-ray machines, not metal detectors.

          Gun violence is a mental health issue. A nutty person with the gun is indeed a problem. However, the shooters in recent years do not fit a predictable psychological profile which deviates significantly from the American population. Perhaps the American population is a bit nutty. If you could identify someone who would potentially harm others, it's currently against the law to lock them up. Some states have laws which allow such people to be locked up. People are not locked up, even those requesting treatment, because the laws controversially restrict civil liberty. People also are not being locked up or receiving treatment because states with such laws don't fund the mental health system. You get what you pay for.

          Destigmatize mental health treatment. It’s a social norm. Good luck with that.

          Put armed guards in every school. We got a new sheriff in town, little pardner. I point out that school districts can't fund teachers, much less a gun packing doughnut-eater who sits around all day to give more peace of mind to little Johnny's helicopter mama. Columbine had an armed guard on duty.

          Violence in entertainment and pop-culture makes our society more violent. Most of the industrial world has the same entertainment culture as our own. We differentiate ourselves by incorporating gun violence into our national identity, who we are as a people. England has exactly the same entertainment influences as we do, but has only a few dozen firearm homicides a year. Japan has a much more violent pop and entertainment culture than our own, but has less than a dozen firearm deaths per year. This is also true in China, which has a bijillion people.

          Limit clip size and ammunition capacity. Seems sensible to me.

If six shots was good enough for Billy the Kid, it should be good enough for modern looney-toons as well. Let's hope that bad guys don't get hold of a Lone Ranger sixgun, which fires 80 shots without reloading.

          We need more identity checks and regulation of secondary markets. This also sounds reasonable to me. Limiting access of criminals, the insane, and terrorists to one gun a month just makes sense. But it may be bad for business.

          So why does England, Japan, bijillion people China, and pretty much any other industrialized country have a much lower rate of firearm murders? The rest of the industrialized world limit private access and ownership of guns. Not having access to guns doesn't slow down murderous looney toons, however. On the day of the Connecticut school shooting, a wacko with a knife attacked schoolchildren in China. He stabbed many children, but none of them died. The wacko was shot by police. School stabbings also occurred recently in Russia and Europe.

          Limiting private ownership of guns is not an option in the US. Guns are part of our national identity. We are a nation awash in guns. Nearly half a million guns were sold on Black Friday alone. Just talking about any type of ban clears out the gun store inventory. The US has 5% of the world's population and 50% of the world's guns. After the Cold War, the Maj. General in charge of the KGB admitted that invasion of the United States was never entertained because of the number of guns in private hands. People terrified of a government seizure of their gun collection should take comfort from that fact. Ain’t gonna happen.

          Other countries think of guns differently than we do in the US. For our great love of guns, we have quite an adolescent, irresponsible view of them. Other nations view guns much more responsibly. Rural England has many firearms but almost no firearm homicides. Pretty much every household in Israel has an automatic weapon, but are quite responsible in their use.

          Recent tragedies may provide an inflection point to the conversation and legislation of gun violence. However, until we explore and assess the relationship of guns to who we are as a people, such tragedies are likely to recur.

Political Trends

          Several emerging political trends were seen in 2012. The introduction of social media and multiplatform monitoring shifted the electorate from passive observers to active participants. Expect this major trend to transform the political landscape.

          The last election revealed the naked avarice of Big Money as unrestrained billionaires attempted to promote personal political ideologies and agendas. It is surprising relative to return on investment how little traction Big Money had on electoral results. $1 billion was wasted as little change was seen on the political chessboard. What benefits could $1 billion have provided for our country, or is that communist thinking?

          The electorate trended towards moderation and extremist positions lost ground. The transformative influence of minorities and diverse demographics increased. The impact of the conjuncture between statistical analysis and information technology was at its infancy but will doubtlessly redefine future political contests.

Cultural Shifts

          2012 revealed many cultural shifts occurring within the US population. Main Street political thought appeared more centrist and progressive. For the first time, popular votes affirmed gay marriage and the legalization of marijuana. California voters gave themselves a tax increase. Pigs should start flying anytime now.

Global Trends

          in the Middle East, populations continued to struggle for political self-determination. The Syrian Civil War and the Egyptian elections are both examples of popular self-expression. It is interesting to note that modern Islamic political thought had its orgins in Egypt, and Egypt remains a crucible of regional political evolution.

          A quiet, but I think quite important event, was the debut of Chinese space flight. A space program is a long-term commitment to becoming a global superpower. Political scientists understand that to be a superpower, the people of the nation must see themselves as a superpower and desire to be a superpower. The national identity of China is still emerging.

          North Korea successfully launched an ICBM. This may turn out to be a very dark inflection point indeed.

 

          So these are some of the major inflection points I observed in 2012. Future historians will also no doubt note that the world did not and in December of that year.