When We're Number Two

When We’re Number Two

 

          I predict this will be a very unpopular and controversial post, as by definition the US must be number one. Oh no, is this going to be another lefty dissing American exceptionalism? Not really. The central message here is, quite optimistic concerning our national prosperity.

          The US and Europe are currently going through some tough times. Spirits are sagging. I guess everybody in the world is going through tough times, right?

          In spite of our current situation, the world is in great shape, when viewed macroscopically. The chance of international war between the major powers is the lowest since statistics were kept. There were fewer deaths in international conflicts now than ever before. The global poverty rate has been cut in half, and this decline is accelerating. Huge strides are being made in reducing global hunger and childhood & infectious disease rates, mainly through private/ public partnerships.  

          So where’s the growth? Pretty much everywhere, but Asia is the fastest growing economic block on the planet with 500 million people living in middle class standards. Within seven years, the Asian middle class is projected to be 1.75 billion, a 350% increase. This will be the greatest economic shift in human history. I guess that’s why Hank Kissinger is camping out in China.

          By 2020, it is likely that Asia will dominate global markets and relegate the US to number two status economically. Hey, it had to happen sometime. We can comfort ourselves that it took a bijillion Asians to take our title. In addition, we’ll probably always be the world’s biggest ass kicker and innovator.

          So how will we respond to these economic, political and social trends? Do we live in denial (USA #1 whoo!). Do we long for Mayberry and the good old days, which is kind of like living in denial? Do we try to block and contain these global changes to preserve our current status? It is important to conceive of an inevitable change in status in order to wisely respond to that change.

          I point out that in history, there is a season for all empires to decline and be eclipsed. There is a season to be another a player and not the spotlighted star of the team. We have been the star for so long we think that we’ll always be the star, that we’re entitled to be the star, that Jesus personally picked us to be the star.

          Athletes know that you become and stay the star by working your butt off, by working harder and smarter than all the other players who are driven to become stars. We don’t seem to be driven much as a nation these days other than to sit our fat butts on the couch, squabble and gaze lovingly at our trophies. We’re the star. People, have the Rocky movies taught you nothing?

          I am reminded of the medieval view of the cosmos in which all creation revolved around the earth, and thus around humans. We are the purpose of creation. Who are we if we’re not the center of the universe? Who are we if we just become another nation among other nations? We can still be a global leader and innovator. Our values and character can still be the light, inspiration and hope of the world. However, this requires us to get our lazy butts off the couch and back into the game…with a purpose.   

          It might be wise to begin NOW to craft a new world order where a dominating Asia can be leveraged and managed. This would involve creating foreign and domestic policies which enhance the lives of ordinary Americans down the road, rather than work for partisan interests of the next election cycle. We need to quit bemoaning how our nation is a victim to naughty globalization. Those bad foreign men took our jobs away. Now we can’t buy our stuff. No, we ALLOWED our jobs to be taken away and cut our corporations from the national tether so they could range far and wide, feeding on the krill of emerging markets. We might consider anew what it will take to take our jobs back, to innovate new undreamt of jobs, to become a world class competitor again, how to bring home some of the profits in the bloated multinational, former-US corporation bank accounts.

          Middle classes are consumer classes. They also tend towards democratic governance. These positive trends could be derailed as this new economic wine strains old political wine skins. Wise partnerships and leadership by the US could help steer emerging nations through unfamiliar waters. Wouldn’t authentic leadership be a great projection of strength? However, providing this leadership will require new global coalitions and institutions.

          I recommend reversing our trend of weakening multinational political organizations and instead leverage these alliances. For example, the present UN Security Council is predictably intractable. The Council could become more functional by adding seven additional seats. These seats would be guaranteed to emerging nations based on a four year rotation. Currently, minor powers spend millions of dollars and in-fight politically to obtain a seat and voice at the table. If emerging nations were guaranteed a seat every four years, this would enable new coalitions to be built. A reformed Security Council would be an equitable and functional win for the great powers and the smaller powers alike, and this arrangement breaks up the logjams of the current status quo.

          Another way we could address the ascent of the East is moving forward with the proposed free trade treaty with the EU. This agreement would immediately create the world’s most powerful commercial block, providing goods and services to tap into emerging mega-consumer markets.

          One major reason our economy is currently so weak is that global markets are soft. People aren’t buying our stuff. This changes as millions globally become consumers. A bigger pie is a better pie.

          Throughout the 20^th Century, the US was socially engineered to be the world’s leading consumer nation, as well as a dominant global producer of goods and services (we were all that was left standing after WWII). Emerging mega-markets would provide the opportunity for  the US to reinvent and repurpose itself as a dominant global export economy. Our extreme efficiency, innovation and automation would enable the US-EU to become a preeminent global competitor and really rake in the cash once again. Such repositioning would require domestic policy reforms to tax codes, corporate regulations and business entrepreneurial incentives. These won’t reform themselves….get off the couch!

          While economic and cultural power shifts towards the setting sun, the rise of the Asian middle class will be an amazing opportunity and an amazing time for the world as a whole. We can rethink and reposition ourselves as a vital part of an amazing whole. When we are number two, will the glass be half empty or half full?